Market News: The Bank of Japan will consider not raising interest rates at its next policy meeting.Chen Guo, China Securities: The 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in all directions, and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities, said that the meeting had seven highlights, including clarifying the growth target and fiscal and monetary policy measures, expanding domestic demand in all directions as the top priority of the policy, focusing on "AI+" in science and technology, focusing on implementation of reform measures, paying attention to coping with external shocks in opening up, strengthening the expression of real estate policies, and increasing efforts to improve people's livelihood. Chen Guo said that further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts from the end of 2024 to 2025 are worth looking forward to, and the easing of the liquidity environment has become a market consensus. However, this does not mean that liquidity is rampant, because the growth of money supply in the scale of social financing still continues the requirement of matching the expected target of the overall price level of economic growth. Chen Guo believes that the 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in an all-round way, and the strength and direction of the policy are in line with expectations. With the support of policy expectations and liquidity, it is expected that the market will continue to show the characteristics of volatility. From the perspective of investment strategy, Chen Guo suggested focusing on non-bank finance, real estate chain, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, building materials, steel, social services, catering chain and other sectors. In terms of theme, it is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities such as "duality" and "two innovations", supply-side optimization, new quality productivity, market value management of state-owned enterprises and CSI A500 index.China Merchants Securities: Investment Guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year From these four aspects, China Merchants Securities said that the investment guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year mainly include the following aspects: 1) From a macro perspective, the support intensity of policies for various economic work is expected to exceed market expectations. Specifically, the fiscal policy orientation is positive, deficit ratio will arrange or keep it above 3%, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be further expanded, and the scale and investment field of special bonds are expected to be further extended; Monetary policy mentioned "timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates", and the goal of liquidity policy changed from balance to loose tendency, which will bring room for valuation improvement of A shares. 2) From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, consumption will become the main line of investment next year: the meeting will continue the deployment of the Politburo meeting in December, and in the order of writing, consumption will still be placed at the top of next year's key tasks. In terms of specific measures, it is planned to boost consumption mainly through two aspects. First, increase the income of residents; The second is to increase consumption scenarios. 3) Focus on scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new quality productive forces, and grasp two main lines: this meeting focused on "carrying out' artificial intelligence+'action and cultivating future industries". Artificial intelligence has appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for three consecutive years. Future industries have also appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for two consecutive years. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on artificial intelligence+and future industries. 4) Focus on "comprehensive improvement of' involution' competition": In terms of "involution" competition, photovoltaic industry is the representative in emerging industries. Recently, in addition to self-regulatory measures such as industry association initiatives, the photovoltaic export tax rebate rate has been lowered and industry norms have been updated to further control new production capacity. The policy is further introduced to curb the "involution" competition of photovoltaics. It is recommended to pay attention to photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industries.
From January to October, the national output of photovoltaic polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components all increased by more than 20% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to October 2024, China's photovoltaic industry operated smoothly as a whole. According to the announcement of photovoltaic industry norms, enterprise information and industry associations, the output of photovoltaic polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components in China increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the export volume of photovoltaic cells increased by more than 40%. In the polysilicon sector, the national output from January to October was about 1.58 million tons, up 39.0% year-on-year. In the silicon wafer link, the national output from January to October was about 608GW, and the export volume was about 53.2GW. In the battery sector, from January to October, the national output of crystalline silicon batteries was about 510GW, and the export volume was about 45.9GW. In terms of components, from January to October, the national output of crystalline silicon components was about 453GW, and the export volume was about 205.9GW.From January to October, the total output of lithium batteries in China increased by 16% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's lithium-ion battery industry continued to grow from January to October 2024. According to the announcement of lithium battery industry norms, enterprise information and industry associations, the total output of lithium batteries in China from January to October was 890GWh, up 16% year-on-year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit of China's lithium battery manufacturing industry increased by 39.4% from January to October. In the battery sector, the output of energy storage lithium batteries exceeded 200GWh from January to October. The loading capacity of power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles is about 405GWh. From January to October, the total export of lithium batteries in China reached 350.2 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year, and the decline was 3.3 percentage points narrower than that in January-June.Guangxi Energy established a new energy company, and the enterprise search APP showed that Fengyuan (Pinggui District, Hezhou City) New Energy Co., Ltd. was established recently, with Xie Jianheng as the legal representative and a registered capital of 400 million yuan. Its business scope includes: energy storage technical services; Contract energy management; Big data service; Electric vehicle charging infrastructure operation, etc. Enterprise survey shows that the company is wholly owned by Guangxi Energy.
Many foreign ministers will hold talks in Jordan to discuss the latest development of the situation in Syria. Jordan announced that it will hold a meeting on December 14th local time to discuss the latest development of the situation in Syria. At the invitation of Jordan, the foreign ministers of the member countries of the Liaison Committee of Arab Ministers on Syria, established by the resolution of the Arab League, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt, and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, will hold a meeting in Aqaba, a city in southern Jordan. The meeting will also be attended by foreign ministers from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar. The Arab foreign ministers attending the meeting will also hold talks with the Turkish foreign minister, the US Secretary of State, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and the UN Special Envoy for Syria.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited applied for the trademark of "Chargeo Charging Dog", and the intellectual property information of Tianyancha shows that recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. applied for the registration of three trademarks of "Chargeo Charging Dog", which are internationally classified as transportation, scientific instruments and building repair, and the current trademark status is awaiting substantive examination. According to media reports, "CharGo charging dog" is a storage, charging and inspection integrated robot developed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. The charging dog has three functions in one. It is not only a mobile charging facility, but also a distributed energy storage, and it is also a battery safety guardian of new energy vehicles.Mitsubishi electric: We are discussing cooperation with Japanese domestic competitors to develop power chips. Qi Jianqi, president of mitsubishi electric, Japan, said in an interview that the company is discussing cooperation with Japanese domestic competitors to develop power chips. Qi Jianqi said that although the management widely supported the cooperation, the above discussion was blocked at the administrative level and no progress was made. Qi Jianqi pointed out that the power chip industry needs continuous technological innovation, and it is meaningful to cooperate while there is still a chance to win market share. "We should not compete with each other, but need to unite.".
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14